[Image source: Reaction Wheel]
Takeaways
I highly suggest consuming the full piece here (27 min. read time)
“…uncertainty is not just a nuisance startup founders can’t avoid, it is an integral part of what allows startups to be successful. Startups that aim to create value can’t have a moat when they begin, uncertainty is what protects them from competition until a proper moat can be built. Uncertainty becomes their moat.” — Jerry Neumann
“Risk can be quantified, uncertainty can not. Both of these lead to unpredictability but, as noted, they are qualitatively different.” — Jerry Neumann
Uncertainty and uncertain things in general oftentimes look obvious in retrospect.
“Uncertainty can create a no-go zone around a new market, allowing a startup to build without competition for some period of time, but the startup’s management has to remain aware that if they are successful, competition will eventually arrive. Uncertainty creates space and time, but only a limited amount. Wise startup management will make use of what time they have to build a moat.” — Jerry Neumann
“To be successful a founder must seek out uncertainty and then must manage the company through it and emerge from the other end with a moat. Uncertainty creates a difficult trade-off for entrepreneurs. Without uncertainty they will immediately face competition from many others, including some who are better resourced. But a business subject to high levels of uncertainty has seemingly intractable management problems.” — Jerry Neumann
“Startup strategies like lean, customer development, design thinking, and many others were all created to manage uncertainty. These strategies were created out of necessity by hands-on practitioners. Like similarly developed ways of working, they can be made more useful by connecting them to underlying theory. If you understand where uncertainty comes from and how it affects decision processes you can craft the right strategy for your company’s situation.” — Jerry Neumann
My two cents: Nothing is certain about starting a company. Maybe this is why it can be so overwhelming. Sure, being in a proven market comes with less uncertainty, but after reading this, I’ve learned that less uncertainty means more competition. It obviously makes sense, but I liked how Jerry gave detailed examples from Apple’s and Google’s startup experiences.
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